Monday, December 30, 2002

Why Iraq is a bigger deal than North Korea

War is political. To pursue war just because Korea has powerful weapons is to pursue a policy for military purposes. North Korea is probabaly the second biggest deal for American foriegn policy. Here's why. Because war is a political act, we need to keep in mind the implications on the war for the broader world. Standing up to a Stalinist dictator and disarming him will put the fear of America in the hearts of all Stalinist dictators. That's not a large club. Standing up to an Arab dictator and disarming him will show the Arab world that we cannot be opposed with impunity. Some people fear that the United States will become an empire. The fact is, America became an Empire circa 1945. As such, peoples around the world assume we are heavy handed. That's why when we defend Muslims (Lebanon, Bosnia, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Afghanistan again, Somolia, &c) we get no credit or lasting gratitude. Its why people around the world fear our power and its use, including Europeans. Hence, the best we can hope to do is to appear as a benevolent empire. (An alternative will be considered and rejected below.) But we certainly must appear powerful, or those who oppose us for reasons rational and irrational will feel bold enough to act. Acting in Iraq has a greater audience than acting in North Korea does. Its political potential is vastly greater both in negative and positive terms. By negative, I mean our enemies will fear our power, and by positive, I mean that establishing free societies with democracy and capitalism will be a reward to those who desire to be like us. We should not under-estimate those who want to live under self-determination, politically and economically. They are a huge source of potential good will, mostly when they depend on our power or have very recently benifited from it. Hence, Iraq is the bigger deal.

Timing

Admitedly, Iraq does not pose the kind of time table as North Korea does, at least not in terms of nuclear weapons, which are the only WMD that matter. But we need time to build a coalition against North Korea, and we can't sound bellicose there until we know what China is thinking and doing. Working to get Japan, South Korea, and China on board with a policy of North Korean disarmament is essential. Look for building momentum here despite action in Iraq. The faster we wrap things up in Iraq the easier it is to move non-routine assets to East Asia. We already have substantial forces in South Korea and Okinawa, and frankly, this what they are there for.

An Alternative

I said I would mention an alternative, but I'm also going to reject it. We could go the Carter route and just disarm and be like Europe. But that means we have reverted to our 19th century selves. We hope that things work our well n the world and if they don't we are powerless to do anything. Things could get seriously out of hand in the world before decide its neccesary to re-arm and get involved. Despite the experience of WWI, it took the bombing of Pearl Harbor to get involved in WWII. The fact that Hitler had most of Europe was not going to get us into the world, despite the fact that imagining a Nazi victory in Europe is a very unhappy thing to contemplate. Any yet we would have to contemplate it as a matter of routine, if we disarmed as the esteemed Nobel winning president suggests. In effect, by disarming we would deflect hostility and aggression from ourselves to the poorer nations of the world. This is, in fact some of its appeal to the parochial. The costs to us would be higher in the long run. I also have to ask what kind of moral act is it to sluff this kind of aggression off on those less capable of dealing with it. It may be a price for us to pay, getting inbetween combatants all over the world, but since we are far more able to bear it (17 dead now in Afghanistan) than others, it would be terribly selfish and short-sighted to withdraw ourselves to our own shores and forget about the world as we were better able to do in the 19th century when Britain occupied the role of keeper of the peace.

No comments: